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What About the Gas?
#1
OK, project 10 years or so into the future. What if EVs do take off like madness (probably will) and the vast majority of vehicles on the road are EVs instead of ICEs. Wouldn't it be logical to think that most of the gas stations will fold? What if some of us hold-outs end up having to drive 20 miles or more to the next town just to fill up? I'm not talking about those that live in Goat's Beard Ridge and already have to drive 20 miles to fill up, I'm talking most of us. And what the heck will we do with all the petroleum that's left?

I'm thinking at that point the days of widespread free charging outlets will be over. I think the oil companies will take over the electrical generation and distribution industries. I also look for the price of electricity to go way up. Electricity won't be the cheap alternative, it'll be the monopoly. Someone's not only going to have to pay the stockholders, but they're also going to have to pay for vast improvements to the grid. Once they've become the norm, EVs may be much more nexpensive to operate than they are now.

Not that wild of a thought. Consider that just 10 or so years ago, the internet was basically a free market. Site owners and advertisers dealt directly with each other. Now, Search Engines and advertising companies have stepped in and dictate what you can and cannot and what you will and will not do. They control the advertising, and that pretty much controls the net. The days of the little guy achieving the American Dream on the internet are just about over. You have to ask the internet middlemen for permission for just about anything and everything. And then you have to pay them. Or you just remain a bystander.

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Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
This version kicks. There's just no other way to describe it. Shivers. Turn...it...up!
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#2
Too much infrastructure required for EV's to overtake our beloved gas guzzlers or gas sippers for that to happen in 10 years.  EV's, other alternative energy vehicle options, and ICE vehicles will no doubt continue to compete in the USA markets for years to come.  EV's will expand much more rapidly in other world markets.  I'm hoping to see one of the 300,000 Tesla Models 3 preorders, Solo's, or SRK's roll off the assembly line.  It will provide for a measure of market acceptance by the urban commuter demographic.
White Hot Solo #166
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#3
Dale, I think you are way off in your projections. Current automobiles have an effective life of 20+ years. Collector and special interest vehicles are maintained for over 50 years, though that may change because of the increasing percentage of electronic components. Tractors, trucks, airplanes, helicopters, etc will continue to use petroleum-based fuels for years to come.

Machines replaced horses because they were more effective. Even with improved batteries, EV's will not be significantly more effective that ICE vehicles for quite a while.

Right now, there are lots of problems with the costs of electrical generation. Solar and wind are limited, expensive and kill birds. Nuclear is great, but paranoia-driven legislation has curtailed the intelligent use of nuclear. The Navy has proven that nuclear power can be safe and effective. Coal is being brutalized by the enviro-wackos. Until we, as a world or as a nation, start thinking logically, the cost to generate enough electricity to replace ICE commuter cars alone (ignoring buses, trucks, planes, farm equipment, etc) with EV's would crush our economy.

The "save the world crusaders" simply do not have enough faith in mankind. Given freedom, we are very good at working out terrific solutions. The rough spots along freedom's way are much smaller than the disasters cause my governments trying to force people into brilliant-sounding, but flawed experiments "for their own good". The prosperity of America and the world has been based on energy development. At this point, we are not within 10 years of making EV's truly as cost-effective as ICE, and it would take another 10-30 years after that for the transition to be widespread.
I'm done.
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#4
I wouldn´t really mind if I never paid a further groat to any of the major oil producing countries ever again. It would seem to be commonly accepted that EVs are a godsend in solving the problem of utilising off peak electricity production.
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#5
Don't forget that efficiency of ICE vehicles will continue to improve as well. The only barrier to this at the moment (in the US) is demand for bigger gas hogs. My local Chevy dealer has 90% of his lot filled with full size pickups. Two things drive mileage improvements, high oil prices and regulation. Otherwise the customer will respond to market conditions, which for the moment, favor ICE. The other barrier is actually the demographics, a large portion of the country still lives far outside of where they work. It is not unusual around here to have a 1-2 hour commute, and not in city traffic, but on interstates. The 100 mile range is still a hindrance here, unless you have charging capability at your job, and most dont.
The average tank of gas in a car will get you 350-450 miles. Until EVs can supply this kind of range, demand by this group will not be high.
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#6
The development of EV's and other alternative vehicles isn't to replace all ICE vehicles, but rather to help reduce our dependency on foreign oil and perhaps stretch the USA oil reserves to provide an adequate affordable supply of gas for those that choose or require gas for their ICE vehicles in the future and perhaps inadvertently help improve the environment along the way.  

Increased battery range and reduced battery cost are critical for a slightly larger demographic acceptance, but fast charge time for those planning to drive an EV for long distance commutes or cross country trips is as critical.  The vast majority of EV's will be purchased as everyday day electric urban commuters to supplement the family ICE not intended to replace it.   The Solo & SRK Are perfect for this new class of EV personal enclosed motorcycle classified vehicle. They may replace more motorcycles than cars.

Tesla Motors has a concept pickup truck on the drawing board.  Could be a market for a short trip in town delivery or light duty work truck.
White Hot Solo #166
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#7
For me, the task is to find a vehicle for congested, urban traffic. 60 miles and 80kmh would be OK, as long as it´s not wider than 90cm -1m
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#8
(10-03-2016, 12:32 PM)paravil Wrote: For me, the task is to find a vehicle for congested, urban traffic. 60 miles and 80kmh would be OK, as long as it´s not wider than 90cm -1m

Reducing congested urban traffic and ease of parking is the single best marketing logic and reason for driving a personal 1 or 2 seater electric commuter.  It's the primary reason to expect worldwide market acceptance for this class of vehicle and financial success for the company that finally gets one to market.   The low cost of ownership over the lifetime of the vehicle and the fun factors are a bonus.
White Hot Solo #166
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#9
(10-03-2016, 12:30 PM)Rickb Wrote: The development of EV's and other alternative vehicles isn't to replace all ICE vehicles, but rather to help reduce our dependency on foreign oil and perhaps stretch the USA oil reserves to provide an adequate affordable supply of gas for those that choose or require gas for their ICE vehicles in the future and perhaps inadvertently help improve the environment along the way.  

Increased battery range and reduced battery cost are critical for a slightly larger demographic acceptance, but fast charge time for those planning to drive an EV for long distance commutes or cross country trips is as critical.  The vast majority of EV's will be purchased as everyday day electric urban commuters to supplement the family ICE not intended to replace it.   The Solo & SRK Are perfect for this new class of EV personal enclosed motorcycle classified vehicle. They may replace more motorcycles than cars.

Tesla Motors has a concept pickup truck on the drawing board.  Could be a market for a short trip in town delivery or light duty work truck.

Terrific post!  It hits all the important points, and much more cleanly than I would have said it.

(10-03-2016, 12:32 PM)paravil Wrote: For me, the task is to find a vehicle for congested, urban traffic. 60 miles and 80kmh would be OK, as long as it´s not wider than 90cm -1m

Have you test driven a Twizy?  They aren't available here, but the specs sound quite close to what you might want, even though they don't lean.
I'm done.
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#10
I have! It definitely is fun, but doesn´t fit the bill for a number of reasons. Renault stipulate battery hire, it´s open (winters are cold and wet over here), too slow, doesn´s tilt in a curve
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