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June CEO Report
#11
Good points too, but the SRK is a convertible 2-seater with its soft and hardshell enclosure options.  If the SOLO and SRK have appeal and FUNctional application as a supplement to my SUV,  they are likely to have broader demographic market appeal interest to millions of others going well beyond the niche market vehicles like the Slingshot or Spyder.  I wouldn't consider purchasing or driving either based on their open platform, styling, or function.  Most every SRK test rider gave it a 2 thumbs up and the few SOLO test drive reviews have been very positive.

I predict one of these everyday electric urban commuters to be parked in everybody's driveway to include yours. Smile Time will answer the market appeal/acceptance question.  I can only hope my 10+ year search and wait for a fun enclosed three wheeler is finally over since I am growing older, becoming less patient, and getting very weary.
White Hot Solo #166
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#12
(06-30-2017, 09:39 AM)pogson Wrote: If they can ship 10 units a month they have enough revenue to start another assembly line.
10 x a conservatively estimated "profit" (before already accumulated and additional accumulating debt) = $25,000.
Robert, are you saying that you think EMV can duplicate their original assembly facility and tooling for $25k?
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#13
(06-30-2017, 03:40 PM)DiscjockeyDale Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 09:39 AM)pogson Wrote: If they can ship 10 units a month they have enough revenue to start another assembly line.
10 x a conservatively estimated "profit" (before already accumulated and additional accumulating debt) = $25,000.
Robert, are you saying that you think EMV can duplicate their original assembly facility and tooling for $25k?
No, I'm saying they can build/buy carts and tool-boxes and hire workers for $100K. I estimate their margin is closer to $10K per vehicle rather than $2.5K. The car is tiny and has a low parts-count. It doesn't cost $17.5K to build. They are not building one-off units. They have a design. They have parts lined up. In the prospectus for shares they estimate they could build one unit every 4h. That's reasonable. I've worked on an assembly line. It can be very efficient with no wasted steps. They just need a modest revenue stream to make a major expansion in production. Ideally, they would want $millions more invested so they could start up a decent building with many assembly lines but if that doesn't happen they can step up gradually using revenue/margin and crowd things or build in the parking lot during the day. Alternatively they can hire three shifts of workers to run the same assembly line 24x7. I worked overtime every day of the week supplying welded parts to an assembly line. Nothing was wasted. It's cheaper to hire more workers than working people to death but there are many ways of doing the ramp-up. With a backlog of orders there are many possible ways forward. The major mode of failure is not ramping up production. That will eat into the backlog and make later expansion more difficult. The time is now. EMV should strike while the iron is hot.
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#14
Or, once the vehicle is finalized (which it isn't yet, as it doesn't have ABS, or A/C, or regen braking - yet - all promised) and has passed certification in both the U.S. and Canada, components/major assemblies can be mass produced in China, mostly assembled in China and sent - dozens per shipping container - as 3-6 "modular pieces" for final assembly in Canada (or any of several factories in North America, if they wanted to).

Attaching wheels, drive belt, composite body, engine to one another really isn't rocket science. The bodies can be printed/extruded in N.A., for that matter. A monthly shipment of 250 or 500 'mostly assembled' Solos to Vancouver for final assembly would not be that difficult. If they can sell 250/month (and they really should be able to) they can make a heck of a lot of money. But they need to finalize the damn product and start building them!
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#15
(06-30-2017, 04:10 PM)pogson Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 03:40 PM)DiscjockeyDale Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 09:39 AM)pogson Wrote: If they can ship 10 units a month they have enough revenue to start another assembly line.
10 x a conservatively estimated "profit" (before already accumulated and additional accumulating debt) = $25,000.
Robert, are you saying that you think EMV can duplicate their original assembly facility and tooling for $25k?
No, I'm saying they can build/buy carts and tool-boxes and hire workers for $100K. I estimate their margin is closer to $10K per vehicle rather than $2.5K. The car is tiny and has a low parts-count. It doesn't cost $17.5K to build. They are not building one-off units. They have a design. They have parts lined up. In the prospectus for shares they estimate they could build one unit every 4h. That's reasonable. I've worked on an assembly line. It can be very efficient with no wasted steps. They just need a modest revenue stream to make a major expansion in production. Ideally, they would want $millions more invested so they could start up a decent building with many assembly lines but if that doesn't happen they can step up gradually using revenue/margin and crowd things or build in the parking lot during the day. Alternatively they can hire three shifts of workers to run the same assembly line 24x7. I worked overtime every day of the week supplying welded parts to an assembly line. Nothing was wasted. It's cheaper to hire more workers than working people to death but there are many ways of doing the ramp-up. With a backlog of orders there are many possible ways forward. The major mode of failure is not ramping up production. That will eat into the backlog and make later expansion more difficult. The time is now. EMV should strike while the iron is hot.

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree for once. At least on the "profit" (again before already accumulated and continuously accumulating debt). I was talking USD, not CND. Regardless, IMO, there is just no way that they're going to be producing this vehicle @ 1/2 of it's already relatively low purchase price at 10 units/mo. or less. Exactly because of the fact that it's almost a hand-built "one-off" at such low volume. The economics work in reverse of what you've described. The assembly is going to be dreadfully slow and the parts are going to cost much more until they have a more efficient process and ramp up to 1000/mo. or so. The parts  are going to continue to be expensive @ 2 to 10/mo. I've worked on a few assembly lines myself. I ran a business for twenty years. Finally, I can't give you any confirmation links on this, but I seem to remember J.K. giving an initial per unit "profit" projection in the middle of 2016 that was not completely out of the neighborhood of what I put forward. Bottom line... between 2 to 10 a month is not going to finance any significant ramp-up in production. The funding is going to have to come from outside investment.
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#16
(06-30-2017, 07:34 PM)SparkE Wrote: Or, once the vehicle is finalized (which it isn't yet, as it doesn't have ABS, or A/C, or regen braking - yet - all promised) and has passed certification in both the U.S. and Canada, components/major assemblies can be mass produced in China, mostly assembled in China and sent - dozens per shipping container - as 3-6 "modular pieces" for final assembly in Canada (or any of several factories in North America, if they wanted to).

Attaching wheels, drive belt, composite body, engine to one another really isn't rocket science. The bodies can be printed/extruded in N.A., for that matter. A monthly shipment of 250 or 500 'mostly assembled' Solos to Vancouver for final assembly would not be that difficult. If they can sell 250/month (and they really should be able to) they can make a heck of a lot of money. But they need to finalize the damn product and start building them!
The Signature Series Specs are finalized with changes made when engineering determines change is necessary.  Sounds to me like they ARE building them with the first SOLO delivered and a few others undergoing the assembly process.   If the current Specs don't meet your needs, you have the option to wait for AC and ABS.
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#17
(06-30-2017, 07:34 PM)SparkE Wrote: Or, once the vehicle is finalized (which it isn't yet, as it doesn't have ABS, or A/C, or regen braking - yet - all promised) and has passed certification in both the U.S. and Canada, components/major assemblies can be mass produced in China, mostly assembled in China and sent - dozens per shipping container - as 3-6 "modular pieces" for final assembly in Canada (or any of several factories in North America, if they wanted to).

Attaching wheels, drive belt, composite body, engine to one another really isn't rocket science. The bodies can be printed/extruded in N.A., for that matter. A monthly shipment of 250 or 500 'mostly assembled' Solos to Vancouver for final assembly would not be that difficult. If they can sell 250/month (and they really should be able to) they can make a heck of a lot of money. But they need to finalize the damn product and start building them!

Why do people continue to insist on saying that the Solo does not have regen?
Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
This version kicks. There's just no other way to describe it. Shivers. Turn...it...up!
Disclaimer: No false statistics were supported, displayed or harmed in the making of this post.
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#18
(06-30-2017, 08:53 PM)DiscjockeyDale Wrote: there is just no way that they're going to be producing this vehicle @ 1/2 of it's already relatively low purchase price at 10 units/mo. or less. Exactly because of the fact that it's almost a hand-built "one-off" at such low volume. The economics work in reverse of what you've described. The assembly is going to be dreadfully slow and the parts are going to cost much more until they have a more efficient process and ramp up to 1000/mo. or so. The parts  are going to continue to be expensive @ 2 to 10/mo
That's not how Chinese suppliers work. If they think you are going to develop a demand for thousands of units they will bend over backwards to facilitate the project. Shipping a container-load of parts costs only a few $thousand and a container can hold parts for many Solos. There were only a few parts that EMV had to make all on their own. The Chinese can crank out most of them in volume. That leaves battery-assembly, the suspension and the body that are custom-made. Most of the other parts are off-the shelf and used in other vehicles/devices.

Assembly in particular is designed to be speedy with Solo. That's part of the design. It has a low parts count and low mass that lowers the cost of the vehicle greatly. Typically, such products cost ~$10/pound. The Solo is more because of the body and battery but those are only a few $thousand more even in low volumes. Once the design is final folks can just crank out parts, ship them and assemble them with labour being the only bottleneck. How fast can people move and can they avoid mistakes? Training workers and optimizing the assembly is mostly about practice. I bet the early slow production is more about training workers than time taken to assemble Solos. If you put a few of us old guys in a room with Solo parts I bet we could figure out how to make one a day in a week or so even without a plan from an engineer. It's just a big puzzle. Where does this fit and in what order does it have to go in? Now that EMV has done the engineering they just need workers and assembly lines to make Solos happen.

I don't know what labour rates are in Vancouver but suppose it's $25/h. A dozen people could run one of EMV's assembly lines. That costs $300/h. If a Solo takes 4h that's $1200 to assemble one. If a Solo takes 24h it's still only $7200. Somewhere in between those extremes is the cost over parts and I think there are $thousands per machine margin, plenty to expand production. EMV can buy parts wholesale. EMV can train workers to assemble Solos efficiently.

Two years ago, I bought a tractor from China. To my surprise it arrived as parts... It took me only 100h to assemble it without the proper tools and only a simple hoist. It weighted about the same as a Solo. It's parts-count was about the same except for the body and there was no assembly manual. I e-mailed the factory when I couldn't figure something out. Imagine a setup like EMV has with all the right stuff, engineering staff on hand, and a dozen or so people. My 100h would be less than 8h at EMV. There's just no way Solo has to be considered a tight margin proposition. That may well happen a year or two from now when competition floods in trying to catch up with EMV in the trike/commuter market but then the price will be lower.

EMV needs to ramp up production ASAP if they want to compete. They can do it even with a single assembly line to start. It can produce many per week. It can generate the revenue needed to replicate that assembly line or increase its duty-cycle.
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#19
(06-30-2017, 11:21 PM)pogson Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 08:53 PM)DiscjockeyDale Wrote: there is just no way that they're going to be producing this vehicle @ 1/2 of it's already relatively low purchase price at 10 units/mo. or less. Exactly because of the fact that it's almost a hand-built "one-off" at such low volume. The economics work in reverse of what you've described. The assembly is going to be dreadfully slow and the parts are going to cost much more until they have a more efficient process and ramp up to 1000/mo. or so. The parts  are going to continue to be expensive @ 2 to 10/mo
That's not how Chinese suppliers work. If they think you are going to develop a demand for thousands of units they will bend over backwards to facilitate the project. Shipping a container-load of parts costs only a few $thousand and a container can hold parts for many Solos. There were only a few parts that EMV had to make all on their own. The Chinese can crank out most of them in volume. That leaves battery-assembly, the suspension and the body that are custom-made. Most of the other parts are off-the shelf and used in other vehicles/devices.

Assembly in particular is designed to be speedy with Solo. That's part of the design. It has a low parts count and low mass that lowers the cost of the vehicle greatly. Typically, such products cost ~$10/pound. The Solo is more because of the body and battery but those are only a few $thousand more even in low volumes. Once the design is final folks can just crank out parts, ship them and assemble them with labour being the only bottleneck. How fast can people move and can they avoid mistakes? Training workers and optimizing the assembly is mostly about practice. I bet the early slow production is more about training workers than time taken to assemble Solos. If you put a few of us old guys in a room with Solo parts I bet we could figure out how to make one a day in a week or so even without a plan from an engineer. It's just a big puzzle. Where does this fit and in what order does it have to go in? Now that EMV has done the engineering they just need workers and assembly lines to make Solos happen.

I don't know what labour rates are in Vancouver but suppose it's $25/h. A dozen people could run one of EMV's assembly lines. That costs $300/h. If a Solo takes 4h that's $1200 to assemble one. If a Solo takes 24h it's still only $7200. Somewhere in between those extremes is the cost over parts and I think there are $thousands per machine margin, plenty to expand production. EMV can buy parts wholesale. EMV can train workers to assemble Solos efficiently.

Two years ago, I bought a tractor from China. To my surprise it arrived as parts... It took me only 100h to assemble it without the proper tools and only a simple hoist. It weighted about the same as a Solo. It's parts-count was about the same except for the body and there was no assembly manual. I e-mailed the factory when I couldn't figure something out. Imagine a setup like EMV has with all the right stuff, engineering staff on hand, and a dozen or so people. My 100h would be less than 8h at EMV. There's just no way Solo has to be considered a tight margin proposition. That may well happen a year or two from now when competition floods in trying to catch up with EMV in the trike/commuter market but then the price will be lower.

EMV needs to ramp up production ASAP if they want to compete. They can do it even with a single assembly line to start. It can produce many per week. It can generate the revenue needed to replicate that assembly line or increase its duty-cycle.

"That's not how Chinese suppliers work." I assume you've spoken to EMV's Chinese suppliers to verify that?

You seem to have taken quite a bit of creative liberty with the numbers. You've also offered quite a wide variety of cost projections... er... guesses there.
We agree to totally disagree. Requiring outside venture capital to significantly increase the efficiency of the process and ramp up production is not a bad thing.

This might just be an important indicator in the discussion... You said, "It can produce many per week." If it can, then why is it saying it won't?
Did I miss an announcement that said that they're projecting more than between 2 - 10 units per month over the next six months?

I don't think EMV is foolish enough to stretch itself as "shoestring" thin as you've described.
Keeping production low for now is probably by design for a number of reasons beyond financial capability.
It may not have been what they'd planned or foreseen last year, but I think it's a wise "on second thought" decision.

I do think that EMV is now sitting in an optimal position to attract the venture capital it needs to expand and increase production domestically.
As far as an expansion in production happening overseas, I think it's likely, but I don't think the players have found the right "sweet spot" to seal the deal.
Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
This version kicks. There's just no other way to describe it. Shivers. Turn...it...up!
Disclaimer: No false statistics were supported, displayed or harmed in the making of this post.
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#20
(06-30-2017, 09:30 PM)DiscjockeyDale Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 07:34 PM)SparkE Wrote: Or, once the vehicle is finalized (which it isn't yet, as it doesn't have ABS, or A/C, or regen braking - yet - all promised) and has passed certification in both the U.S. and Canada, components/major assemblies can be mass produced in China, mostly assembled in China and sent - dozens per shipping container - as 3-6 "modular pieces" for final assembly in Canada (or any of several factories in North America, if they wanted to).

Attaching wheels, drive belt, composite body, engine to one another really isn't rocket science. The bodies can be printed/extruded in N.A., for that matter. A monthly shipment of 250 or 500 'mostly assembled' Solos to Vancouver for final assembly would not be that difficult. If they can sell 250/month (and they really should be able to) they can make a heck of a lot of money. But they need to finalize the damn product and start building them!

Why do people continue to insist on saying that the Solo does not have regen?
HI dale 

may be still doubts about the regen because emv has not shared range numbers in at different speeds on a  highway and numbers in city, and whether solo can be driven in one pedal mode http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109...ectric-car

dale

if you have the info please post it ,
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