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June CEO Report
#1
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Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
This version kicks. There's just no other way to describe it. Shivers. Turn...it...up!
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#2
"You cannot buy a vehicle for this price anywhere in the world".

Sigh. Jerry, Tata motors would beg to differ, since they sell multiple vehicles for much less than the sales price of the Solo.
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#3
(06-29-2017, 09:07 PM)SparkE Wrote: "You cannot buy a vehicle for this price anywhere in the world".

Sigh. Jerry, Tata motors would beg to differ, since they sell multiple vehicles for much less than the sales price of the Solo.

In all fairness SparkE, even though it is only one man stating his opinion, the entire sentence was...
"You cannot buy a vehicle for this price anywhere in the world, ever, and get this level of happiness."
Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
This version kicks. There's just no other way to describe it. Shivers. Turn...it...up!
Disclaimer: No false statistics were supported, displayed or harmed in the making of this post.
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#4
Are motorcycles vehicles? Are used cars vehicles? Who gets to define happiness?
It's all advertising spin, and therefore should not be believed. Except for that part that you can't buy the Solo anywhere in the world. That part is true, with extremely limited exceptions hopefully coming soon.

Of course, if they are able to ramp production up to the projected 10 units per month, it will only take 4.5 years for a person reserving now to take delivery of a new Solo.

It's nice to see that EMV appears to be making some progress, but it is a bit premature to hold one's breath, or make life decisions based on getting a Solo. Not to imply that anyone is doing that, just stating a fairly obvious conclusion.
I'm done.
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#5
I think we believe what we believe as individuals. Advertising spin, as long as there is something behind it, is only one part of the equation. The Team behind the SOLO spin seem dedicated and believable based on tangible results having delivered the first production Signature Series Solo. Potential VCs and individual stock market investors can drive it, buy it, and see the $20M of reservation sales revenue starting to roll in. EMV has asked for risk free refundable reservations. I'm holding my breath thinking that EMV may scale assembly of the 1000 Signature Series pending a successful rollout of their initial stock offering.

Major progress. Don't worry, Be Happy.........however you define it.
White Hot Solo #166
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#6
(06-30-2017, 12:48 AM)flying_solo Wrote: Of course, if they are able to ramp production up to the projected 10 units per month, it will only take 4.5 years for a person reserving now to take delivery of a new Solo.
That's beyond conservative. That's cynical. If they can ship 10 units a month they have enough revenue to start another assembly line. Then two more. Then four more. Then they have 7 lines producing 70 per month and the 4.5 years is less than one year. It's called growth. Is there any indication at all that EMV cannot grow? No. It will be slower without further investment but it can happen one way or another. Folks who have come this far are not going to quit.

I still think it's possible for me to get my Solo in 2018, perhaps not Q1 but easily by Q2, assuming achievable growth in production. If they get a few $million investment from Dragons' Den or some government or an IPO, they will be able to bring Solo to market in a bigger way. There are many paths to success and only a couple to failure. Success is much more likely.

In the short term, EMV has a big enough market of enthusiasts like me to for a year or two. The ultimate question is will Solo "catch on" and become desirable in the eyes of ordinary commuters so that large factories can crank Solos out in rapid fire? That's not sure but once hundreds of Solos are dancing around in public there's a good chance. My neighbourhood is full of people who commute or people who have retired or are about to retire. Solo is a great second car for both. You'd be surprised how many cars people own here. One neighbour has 8 cars and several utility vehicles. Do they care about the environment? Yes. Do they care about the price/cost of things? Yes. Do they have money to spend? Certainly. EMV has an opportunity and they are going for it. It's all good.
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#7
The current new startup three wheeler reservation market is SOLO/536 (I'm curious how many industrial orders), SRK/1600, Elio/65,000.  The market acceptance still needs to be proven for mass production.  When people see these on the road there is potential for sales to sky rocket.  

Arcimoto's business Model appears to be an on-line direct to consumer sales model with SRKs manufactured to order and shipped directly to the customers garage door.  SOLOs Dealer Stores and ELIO Non-dealer Stores.  I think three wheelers as a supplement to the family car will be slow initially, but well received over time providing the vehicles prove to be quality built, reliable, and have good followup parts and service resources along with award winning customer service experiences.  

Heck, Harley Davidson manufactures 250,000 motorcycles per year with retiring aging bikers a major demographic looking seriously at the all three wheeler options available to extend their riding experiences.  
 
The urban three wheeler commuter EV market has the potential to be huge in the USA & worldwide markets.  If I wasn't old and out of the stock market I may high risk invest in 2 of the 3 new startups.
White Hot Solo #166
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#8
(06-30-2017, 09:39 AM)pogson Wrote:
(06-30-2017, 12:48 AM)flying_solo Wrote: Of course, if they are able to ramp production up to the projected 10 units per month, it will only take 4.5 years for a person reserving now to take delivery of a new Solo.
That's beyond conservative. That's cynical. If they can ship 10 units a month they have enough revenue to start another assembly line. Then two more. Then four more. Then they have 7 lines producing 70 per month and the 4.5 years is less than one year. It's called growth. Is there any indication at all that EMV cannot grow? No. It will be slower without further investment but it can happen one way or another. Folks who have come this far are not going to quit.

I still think it's possible for me to get my Solo in 2018, perhaps not Q1 but easily by Q2, assuming achievable growth in production. If they get a few $million investment from Dragons' Den or some government or an IPO, they will be able to bring Solo to market in a bigger way. There are many paths to success and only a couple to failure. Success is much more likely.

In the short term, EMV has a big enough market of enthusiasts like me to for a year or two. The ultimate question is will Solo "catch on" and become desirable in the eyes of ordinary commuters so that large factories can crank Solos out in rapid fire? That's not sure but once hundreds of Solos are dancing around in public there's a good chance. My neighbourhood is full of people who commute or people who have retired or are about to retire. Solo is a great second car for both. You'd be surprised how many cars people own here. One neighbour has 8 cars and several utility vehicles. Do they care about the environment? Yes. Do they care about the price/cost of things? Yes. Do they have money to spend? Certainly. EMV has an opportunity and they are going for it. It's all good.
It's cynical to take the company's statements at face value?  LOL  They are currently projecting ramping up to "2 to 10" vehicles per month.  I was taking the high end of their projections.

A little bit of realism is a good thing.  I am not aware of any 3-wheeler selling in large numbers.  As best as I can gather the Slingshot is selling about 10k units per year, and that seems to be the 3-wheeler with the highest sales volume.  Of course that is ignoring the HK, China, Russia, India, etc markets.

To date, startup companies promising to produce and sell trikes have an extremely poor track record.  In fact, startup vehicle companies in general have a very poor track record.  Even successful performance specialty car builders such as Shelby, Roush, Saleen, and Hennessey have not made production vehicles on anything approaching mass volumes.

It is a difficult, expensive project to launch a mass-market street legal vehicle.  Three wheelers have limited market appeal.

In EMV's favor, they have been, so far, prudent in their financial management.  They have recently (2016) started spending significant funds on R&D, and have produced several prototypes that look good.  Even though there has been no independent reviews or test results, they have delivered one production vehicle.

They still face significant obstacles.  Neither U.S. nor Canadian certification has been received.  Testing seems to be quite limited.  Per their own information, no Solo has been tested over 10k miles.  There is no indication that any hot-weather testing has been completed.  Features that affect many prospects' purchasing decisions, such as A/C and ABS, are not available, and do not appear to be in even the early stages of prototyping.

The prospectus covers many of the obstacles facing the company.  While some of the wording is meant to protect the company legally, the facts behind the wording are real.

Much of the demand for the Solo (like most products) is based upon successful production.  Successful (quantity) production is based upon financing, which is based upon perceived and actual demand.

EMV should be able to sell 10 units per month as long as they can produce and certify them.  Running under the InterMeccanica model, they should continue to be a successful company.  This is, IMHO, quite probable.

The looming question is whether they have the ability, the financing, and the market, to reach 1,000/year, 10,000/year, or higher levels of production and sales.  This is much less certain.
I'm done.
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#9
My understanding is the SOLO is Canadian Certified.  The first reservation SOLO has been sold and licensed in Canada.  

I'm unaware of any enclosed three wheeler vehicles currently on the market.  The open Slingshot and CanAm Spyder platforms are niche market vehicles having a higher MSRP with styling on the More extreme/edgy end of the range to warrant wide public acceptance as a functional commuter vehicle.  

The other failed enclosed three wheeler startups you mention have not been able to build a proof of concept.  EMV has delivered a production vehicle and have a vision along with a business plan, and funding sources to make it happen.  The only real looming question is market acceptance.  No real comparison to the others at EMV's stage in their production plans.

Also, Kroll has apparently been in discussion with an Asian Motorcycle manufacturer producing over a million bikes per year........speaking of mass production that impacts the worldwide market and distribution of the SOLO.
White Hot Solo #166
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#10
(06-30-2017, 01:00 PM)Rickb Wrote: My understanding is the SOLO is Canadian Certified.  The first reservation SOLO has been sold and licensed in Canada.  

I'm unaware of any enclosed three wheeler vehicles currently on the market.  The open Slingshot and CanAm Spyder platforms are niche market vehicles having a higher MSRP with styling on the More extreme/edgy end of the range to warrant wide public acceptance as a functional commuter vehicle.  

The other failed enclosed three wheeler startups you mention have not been able to build a proof of concept.  EMV has delivered a production vehicle and have a vision along with a business plan, and funding sources to make it happen.  The only real looming question is market acceptance.  No real comparison to the others at EMV's stage in their production plans.

Also, Kroll has apparently been in discussion with an Asian Motorcycle manufacturer producing over a million bikes per year........speaking of mass production that impacts the worldwide market and distribution of the SOLO.

Good points, but...
Not Canadian Certified for production.  At this point, Canadian certification is on a unit-by-unit basis, as InterMeccanica has been doing for years.  

The Slingshot and the Spyder are in different classes.  The Spyder is similar to the SRK.  The Slingshot is much closer to the Solo.  Regardless of legal definitions, the "average" prospect will see the SRK & the Spyder as 3-wheel motorcycles, and the Solo and Slingshot as 3-wheel cars.  

All 4 vehicles have significant obstacles to mass-market acceptance:
3-wheels - all 4
handlebar steering - SRK, Spyder
roadster / open top - Slingshot, Spyder, (SRK open sides)
single occupant - Solo
two-seaters - SRK, Slingshot, Spyder
range limitations - Solo, SRK
ABS missing - Solo, SRK
AC missing - all 4 (possibly on Solo & SRK in the future)
not really in production - Solo, SRK
EV's still a niche market - Solo, SRK
start-up manufacturers - Solo, SRK
small size - Solo, SRK, Spyder, (Slingshot to a lesser extent)

Admittedly, some of the obstacles listed are sort of duplicates (range/EV and startup/not in production), but each of these vehicles appeal only to a limited segment of the market.  The Spyder and the Slingshot are known quantities, and the current market for these vehicles in their current configurations is fairly well known.  The market for the SRK and/or the Solo is still a matter of speculation.  

IMHO, in spite of its quirkiness, the Solo is by far the most normal-looking vehicle of the bunch.  EMV has a chance of success if they can built in quantity with quality.
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