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Battery life / cost of operation
#1
The SAM discussion got me to thinking.  In spite of the danger, I started crunching some numbers and have a few questions.

It looks like the Sam's 100-mile /  12kWh battery costs $5750.  If we assume that the Solo's 16.1kWh battery would be about $6k, and last 100k miles, that would be 6 cents per mile.  At 150k life - 4 cents per mile.  At 200k - 3 cents per mile.

Where I live, electricity runs about 12 cents per kW.  There are different rate plans, etc, but that is about average.  16kWh * .12/kW for 100 miles works out to about 2 cents per mile (1.92).

Which leaves a range of 5 to 8 cents per mile for "fuel", with 60% to 75% of the fuel costs paid for upfront in the purchase price of the vehicle.

At $2.00 per gallon, which is the current price for regular locally, that works out to about the same price as 25mpg to 40mpg.

Admittedly, there are some maintenance costs in an ICE vehicle that the EV will avoid:
Oil & filter changes.
Transmission & diff lubes.
Spark plugs and wires.
Fuel filters.
Air filters.
Fan belt.
Starting battery.

I haven't gone through the maintenance schedule for my cars to estimate the cost of maintenance (DIY or dealer) for 100/150/200k, but I ran a quick guesstimate of about $1400 for 200k for DIY.  I'm ignoring repair costs, just scheduled maintenance.

That would work out to less that 1 cent per mile (0.7) for routine maintenance exclusive to gasoline vehicles.

If we subtract that from the EV calc above, we wind up with 4 to 7 cents per mile, or 29 to 50mpg equivalent.

At $2.50/gal for gas ~ 36 to 63 mpg
At $3.00/gal for gas ~ 43 to 75 mpg
At $3.50/gal for gas ~ 50 to 88 mpg

Those calcs are assuming a 200k useful battery life at the high mpg end, and 100k at the low mpg end.  Also, they are based on the Solo's advertised projections, and would be different for any other EV.

I'm not sure the assumptions are correct, but the calculations were interesting to me.

Do the assumptions seem reasonable?
Do the numbers seem reasonable?
Would this motivate you to buy an EV/Solo, or to walk away? Or would it affect your purchase decision at all?
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#2
HI

thats great thought and work

I would still go for it

I know its not apples to apples

just looked up some number edmunds for ford fusion(car i would rent on long drives and the car i would buy if considering ICE) fuels alone comes to 5800 in five yrs, maintenance 3100 and rapairs 600

there will be some costs you can't avoid,

i live in suburbs and drive about 60-70 miles/day depending on the traffic, i like a small foot print vehicle that is safe both interms of size and as well as energy consumption, that is my personal interest

BTW looks like some ?progress lit motors
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#3
I think $6K will be a little high on the estimate for a new Solo battery pack. We certainly hope so. The reason I say that is this, from the FAQ page of Arcimoto's website...
"We anticipate that the battery system in the base model of the SRK will last at least 6 years and expect that the replacement cost will be under $2500."
While Electra Meccanica hasn't put forth an estimate yet regarding the replacement cost of their battery pack, It does have an 8-year warranty on it.
There is a video on Electra Meccanica's website about the ease of battery replacement and anticipated improvements in technology and future increased range.
Required listening... House of Lords - Can't find my way home
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#4
The $2500 range replacement battery estimate seems more realistic on a $15K vehicle like the SRK or Solo.  If it fits during the test drive, I'll buy it regardless.
White Hot Solo #166
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#5
Unless/until EM specifically states what they are charging for the battery, it is still a bit of a guess. SAM shows a 7kW battery pack as $3750, and a 12kW pack for $5750. Nissan charges $5500 for a 24kW pack and requires that you trade in your old 24kW pack. I've read an article or two indicating that batteries should start dropping under $200/kW, but it doesn't look like we are there year.

I could be wrong, but the Solo looks more like a $9-10K vehicle with a $5-6K battery to me, rather than a $13K vehicle with a $2500 battery.

My hope would be that with mass production and ongoing reductions in battery costs, the price would drop to $12K or less within a couple of years. My dream/fantasy would be $10K & 200 miles.
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#6
For grins, I looked around a bit more. The Smart ForTwo's 17.6kWh battery pack appears to cost $5100. Smart gives that discount for signing on to a monthly lease at $80 per month. That would only seem to be a bargain for people who drive a lot of miles.

Of course, there are several factors which affect battery price: maximum safe charge & discharge rates, quality, type of cooling, life expectancy, materials, etc.
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#7
Can a solo owner provide the on board charging rate in KWh of the Solo?
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#8
Pogson is the most likely candidate to email the SOLO #0001 Greens & Beans Deli Owner the questions about charging and other details regarding their daily use experiences since taking delivery of their SOLO.  Pogson? Smile
White Hot Solo #166
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#9
(09-14-2017, 01:12 PM)Rickb Wrote: Pogson is the most likely candidate to email the SOLO #0001 Greens & Beans Deli Owner the questions about charging and other details regarding their daily use experiences since taking delivery of their SOLO.  Pogson? Smile 

Perhaps Dale would consider extending her a personal invitation to join this Forum.  Dale? Smile

I sent an e-mail requesting information on charging, range v speed, and what the manual says about charging and use in cold weather. I could have added an invitation but it slipped my mind. A lot of things do that theses days.
My blog is an eclectic list of rants and commentary about things for which I care. See MrPogson.com It's been around a decade...
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#10
I sent Greens & Beans an invitation.
White Hot Solo #166
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